Editor’s Note
Conflicts are raging in different continents and engulf the waters of various seas. While Ukraine finds no resolution, there is no method found as yet to douse the flames in Gaza, either. Meanwhile, the Houthis tie down disproportionate forces, even as Somali pirates strike repeatedly. In all these chaos, the US and NATO forces have intervened, testing their resilience amidst wide spread deployments. Is this all in accordance with a gameplan of a set of nations to stretch the west, and prepare to address their own larger objectives.
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The world is transiting through challenging times. After having faced the devastating impact of Covid-19, multiple regional conflicts are emerging with the potential to not only engulf the respective regions but also to spread beyond and cast a shadow on most parts of the world. Though appearing as unconnected dots, there is a deep-rooted strategy by some nations in instigating these conflicts and related events. Further, most of these conflicts have no end in sight. An analysis of relevant issues is called for.
Post WW II, two super powers had emerged: the USA and USSR. These two countries, despite being on the same side in WW II, propagated two distinct philosophies that opposed each other. While the USA believes in the Democratic form of governance, USSR believed in the Communist form of governance. A Cold War continued between these two super powers with USA creating the NATO and USSR creating the Warsaw Pact military affiliations. The cold war state diminished in 1991 when USSR disintegrated and Russia emerged as its prime successor. However, the two super powers still continued in the form of USA and Russia. Gradually, the world turned UNIPOLAR and the USA emerged occupied the citadel.
The USA has been projecting its power in almost all parts of the world. It interjected its forces majorly in Afghanistan in 2001. It was after two decades in Afghanistan, that USA decided to withdraw its forces in a hurried manner on 30 Aug 2021 without adequate protection either for its own security forces, or the Government in power in Kabul which was on the verge of collapsing. Taliban expectedly advanced and assumed power on 15 August 2021.The faith that many nations had deposed in the USA as a nation capable of keeping the world stable, eroded.
The rivalry of USA and Russia kept sharpening with the USA trying to forge stronger ties with NATO countries whereas Russia, intent on assuming the role of successor of USSR, was also busy in expanding its influence; even annexation of territories in the odd case, Crimea in 2014 being one such act. China, another communist country, which had initially advocated a multi polar world as against unipolar or bipolar world, shifted its strategy and started making efforts to become the top super power globally. It had already taken steps to boost its economy, technological progress and militarily to be counted on the global stage.
When Trump assumed presidency of USA on 20 January 2017, he started reducing the US footprints from different regions of the world guided by the policy of ‘America First’. Withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan was a manifestation of this policy. This changed profile of US was closely being watched both by Russia and China. China also observed the emergence of Japan championing the cause of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a grouping of four nations to include US, Japan, India and Australia. Incidentally, China has adversarial relations with all these four countries. It was time now for China and Russia to play their cards to dissipate the growing power of USA and its allies on the world stage.
As far as India was concerned, it was China that made the first move wherein it transgressed at a number of locations in the Eastern Ladakh in Apr-May 2020 totally disregarding all mutual treaties related to peace and tranquillity. Besides other reasons of this transgression, one of the prime reasons was putting pressure on India to distance itself from its increasing affiliation and tilt towards USA. China considers US as the number 1 opponent as it is only country in the world which can oppose China militarily to prevent annexation of Taiwan as an integral part of China. US has also been taking measures to keep India on its side as it knows for sure that it cannot checkmate China without direct support of India. By undertaking these transgressions and continuing with them till close to four years now, China has foreclosed any other option India may have exercised. The US, in any case, has no other option of strengthening its response against China but through Indian collaboration.
In February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine due to its perceived security concerns. It was easy to observe the nexus between Russia and China at this stage wherein the ‘special operations’ by Russia were launched after conclusion of Beijing Olympics. It was at this point of time when ‘No limit’ friendship between Russia and China got connected with the unquestionable aim of weakening US and its allies. Though Russia-Ukraine war is continuing now for over two years and has resulted in serious inadequacies getting exposed of the Russian side as well, it has been draining the military and financial resources of USA and all its NATO allies substantially with no end in its sight.
Russia-China game plan has been also gathered strength from the Hamas-Israel war which commenced on 7 October2023 and is continuing till date. USA has been supporting Israel and has started committing its defence and financial resources. In the process, US is getting trapped in newer conflicts without the earlier ones getting over. This canvas has widened with Houthi rebels based in Yemen attacking the merchant shipping passing through ‘Red Sea’ route, one of the busiest trade routes globally.
Though US announced a coalition to respond to the security needs of ‘Red Sea’ transit route on 19 December 2023 it started launching operations only in January 2024. It’s possible that Iran and other West Asian nations may join this conflict in some way or the other either to oppose Israel or USA, both of these conditions are favourable to Russia-China axis as they are successfully dissipating US and their allies. This traps do not appear to have been noted.
Having dissipated US and its allies forces from Europe to West Asia, Russia-China appear to have played their master stroke wherein North Korea has started its aggressive actions, apparently against South Korea, but primarily aimed at USA. The USA is bound to respond to protect South Korea due to its security agreements. If this happens, the dispersion of USA will be so far and widespread that it will lead to a status of ‘Advantage Russia-China’.
Such conditions can then be leveraged by China to integrate Taiwan militarily. Taiwan’s airspace and maritime control are being violated by China on a regular basis which are indicators of the events unfolding. The recent presidential elections in Taiwan have resulted in election of Lai Ching-te as the new president of Taiwan who is known for pro democratic and independent status of Taiwan. Given the statement of Xi Jinping in January2024, the possibility of forceful integration of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.
It is evident that from the year 2020 onwards, year after year, deliberate actions are being taken by Russia and China to weaken US and its allies with the aim of forcing them to disperse their power all over. The real test lies in the waters of Pacific; waiting to unfold.
Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd). The officer is a Kargil Veteran, Senior fellow of CLAWS and author of the book ‘China Betrays Again’. He tweets @ChanakyaOracle.
