Editor’s Note
Surya Gangadharan, Editor, StratNewsGlobal, our sister concern, interviewed Dr Sulagna Chattopadhyay, Polar Expert and President of the Delhi-based Arctic think tank Science and Geopolitics of Himalaya Arctic Antarctic – SaGAA. We have had a presence for a long time in the region. However, these issues drive us to the Arctic, and are we doing enough? How much will geopolitics impact, and can we parry the Climate Change blow that is creeping in with a discernible effect on the Arctic? The transcript of the interview offers the answers to a few questions.
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Surya Gangadharan
The Arctic has featured only as a small element in many of our previous shows on science and technology and even ocean development. This time we are looking at the Arctic in its entirety because, on 11 May 2023, there will be a change in the Arctic Council, with Norway taking over as the Head. It is replacing Russia. Moreover, as you know, the Arctic Council has been dysfunctional for some time because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, whether Russia is going to play spoiler, as it is no longer on the top of the Arctic Council, we do not know. However, Russia is a huge factor in the Arctic. It is the dominant Arctic power with over 24,000 square km. It has 53% of the Arctic coastline. More than two million people live in this region, its own citizens, and Russia’s Arctic also has vast oil and gas reservoirs. So that is the background.
We also have the Northern Sea Route that’s opening. It seems China is making the most of it. Although the time period for transit through the Northern Sea route is somewhat limited, China has been quite quick off the mark and all the more reasons why it cannot be ignored?
Sulagna Chattopadhyay
It is actually geopolitics and science. It is science-led geopolitics. For India, at least, you can only be there if you do science. So, it has to be a mix of science and an understanding of geopolitics. Moreover, to see where we are, and how our relationship should shape with a particular country. Geopolitics from that perspective rather than being a key player in the Arctic because the Arctic has 8 sovereign states, and they hold their own. We really have nothing to do with that. However, to understand our strategic partners, how they would use this location strategically, what they would do, and then, of course, brace ourselves for that kind of a scenario, where we may need to also think along lines like, for example, like you just mentioned, to see the Northern Sea Route, to see the maritime link, the land routes, the energy ways. So, these are the strategic things we need. However, geopolitics per se of the Arctic is within the eight Arctic states. We really have nothing to do.
Question
I would like to talk about your NGO. It is rather unique to be focused on the Arctic for a non-Arctic state like India. I know we had Observer status on the Arctic Council. But how did this come about?
Answer
Actually, this is a think tank that we developed. We started this about a decade and a half ago in the Ministry of Earth Sciences. We began with the idea of getting science to lead policy, which is very important, like soft diplomacy and soft power. For the Antarctic, which we began in the 1980s, you could not do anything else but science. Moreover, you had to know what to do, how to set up a station, how to understand the climate dynamics, and how to understand older climates like paleoclimate, for example, what they were like. So, in these studies, we had to participate.
Question
So, you have all that expertise?
Answer
No. We are the analysts. We analyse the work done by people who are already there. One of the things which I mentioned earlier is called agenda setting. When we have a global problem, for example, if the ice melts, how would it affect us? There are two primary ways. One is the climate which would affect the monsoon.
Moreover, it is already affecting us. We have something called teleconnections. We have seen flash floods in the mountains, a lot of that is linked to Rossby waves. There are a lot of studies which already show that. And the other thing is the sea level rise. These are the two things that are going to affect us. Now, of course, some work has begun, but till recently, this was not part of a global agenda to examine this from the context of a tropical country.
So, this is agenda-setting. When we are doing Antarctic science, we are actually doing science that pertains to the international domain rather than being India-specific. It’s only very recently that this change has been coming about in a very nuanced way. We are trying to get scientists to work on our issues about India. So, understanding science underlays our presence in the Antarctic and the Arctic. They need manpower to work towards that; they all need to be on the field. There is this experiment called Mosaic, which recently happened in 24 or 25 countries. And unfortunately, India did not participate in that. A ship stayed for a whole year, locked in ice, in the Arctic. It floated around the place as much as possible and collected data throughout the stay. We should collaborate in these places; we need to be there to be part of this knowledge commons. Our studies will only have that impact if we are part of the knowledge commons. So, our scientists need to be doing that kind of science.
Question
I think all these years when we had two stations in that part of the world in Himadri?
Answer
No, in the Arctic, we have one in Svalbard, Norway, and in the Antarctic, we have three. Dakshin Gangotri, of course, is under the ice.
Question
After all these years, we have done so much research on the Arctic, have we built up a profile?
Answer
We have done some acoustic-related studies. There is a machine which goes underwater; it is called IndARC. It is an observatory; it has got a lot of samples through sensors. One of them is acoustics. There are many others. They will check salinity, temperature, etc. We have had about four years of data till now. A (research) paper talked about how from acoustics, you make out that a passenger ship transited an area, the migration patterns of animals, etc. Moreover, there is also an atmospheric observatory from which we can get what kind of aerosols, black carbon, are in the environment.
Question
So, changes are happening there, much of which is not good.
Answer
So, change is happening, more there than here. If we say the global temperature rises by 1.5, it is more in the Arctic than in India. In India, it’s less than 0.7 degrees.
So there again, it is localised. We have this cold phase or rainy phase, which is very odd in this period. However, now we have Western disturbances, which are four or five days long. It is also very characteristic of the Arctic. They have cold snaps and also heat waves. Temperatures fluctuate from (-) 26 to 26 degrees. You can imagine what that can do to biodiversity or the ice sheets. Cracks can develop in ice sheets, some of which are four kilometers in depth.
If these kinds of ice sheets in Antarctica start cracking and falling into the ocean, it is capable of causing minor earthquakes. So that is how huge they are. Greenland has already mapped that when ice actually carves – they call it ice carving – it can cause minor earthquakes.
So, we have to know what is happening and how it is happening. If we do not, we are left behind and are not part of this privy or exclusive little club.
Question
Given all this controversy about Ukraine, Russia and all, do you believe Norway would be able to get the Arctic Council moving again on issues that matter, like what you just mentioned?
Answer
I believe so. Norway is the best bet we have. Finland has recently joined, and Sweden is likely to join. The US and Russia, of course, could have a better relationship. Therefore, at this point, Norway is the best bet we have, knowing that they have a good historical alliance with Russia, for example, from culture and science agreements, joint fisheries management, a moratorium on hydrocarbon extraction in contested waters, to Norwegians’ self-imposed military restrictions. The initiatives were groundbreaking from Norway’s side.
Question
So, are the Russians observing these?
Answer
Yeah. It has been historic between Norway and Russia. It has happened since the Cold War period. These activities do not appear in a vacuum. There were long historical ties between the Norwegians and the Russians. Moreover, there were trade routes also, which continued. Thus, in the current context, this neighbourliness that Norway and Russia share is definitely going to do much good.
Question
But one keeps hearing reports about Russia militarising parts of the Arctic.
Answer
Now there is something called Cold Response. It is NATO’s exercise in the Arctic, where they involve countries to come every year and train. (It is called Cold Response). That has been happening for nearly two decades. So, there is no additional militarisation apart from the fact that they have exercises in the Arctic and even Russia has its own exercises.
Question
Despite this bad blood between Russia, the US and the West, is there some understanding that the Arctic is an area where they still need to keep some element of common sense and ensure that things do not go to a point where everything goes under?
Answer
I hope some sense prevails, but you cannot predict. As far as the Russian Arctic is concerned, they are facing a lot of issues. Moreover, I would list four or five issues.
One is the resource rush: oil, gas and rare earth, which is sizable. Arctic ice is melting and presents an opportunity whether you like it or not.
The other thing is that you need two things when you want to extract. One is the land on which you build infrastructure. The other is water, through which you actually transport – the easiest and cheapest method of transporting goods. The land is a problem because there is permafrost, and as permafrost melts, it becomes squishy and swampy. So, you need specialised technology to build on the land. The sea is supposedly ice-free, but it is not. As I said, there is so much variability, from (-) 26 degrees to (+)26. Ships need icebreakers. So, the travel time is not constant; it could take 22 days, 28 days or longer. So, for Russia, these are issues that need to be addressed.
Question
Is it premature to talk about exploiting the North Sea Route?
Answer
It accommodates about 1.4 per cent of the global traffic, which is nominal. And it is projected to be around 4.7 or 4.8% in 2050. However, it is not about the volume but what is being carried out and the strategy behind that.
It will be strategically important because it is a route for countries like China, which calls itself Near Arctic, even if for 1.5 months in a year, it is competitive vis-a-vis Malacca Strait and Suez Canal. It is competitive for China to get resources and stock them. It is strategic for countries such as China and even for us. Why not use the route from Vladivostok to Chennai? Even if 1.5 months in a year, it is competitive. One can say that we should look at renewables; one can say let us go and exploit hydrogen and other newer fuels. However, for another 50 years, we will depend on oil and coal. And even the US is not relenting as far as the use of oil and coal is concerned. Even Germany has set up coal plants after Ukraine (war).
Question
So, 50 years from now, we will not have an Arctic which is anywhere near what we have nowadays?
Answer
It is definitely going to be very different. As regards the infrastructure, it definitely is going to look very different. So, it will feel different, look different, and react differently. In 50 years, the Arctic will not be what we know it right now.
Question
Then what happens to your weather studies, and where do you go?
Answer
It is why we need to study the weather. Scientists have developed warning systems. We now have a certain understanding of El Nino, although there is a lot of variability in that.
There is a connection between Arctic weather and the Indian subcontinent, tropical weather. If we build on that understanding, we will be able to predict flash floods perhaps and avoid disastrous consequences.
We have to save our people. So, it is even more important for us to know the predictions. The population of the Himalayan region itself is much more than that in the Russian Arctic.
Question
So, what are we looking at? In the next 50 years, the Arctic is not going to be the same as what we are seeing right now. Is it too late to change anything?
Answer
I can be a cynic and say that there is really no way. However, I am hopeful about certain things. One of them is Hydrogen. If Hydrogen takes off a big way, we may still have hope. Even India is experimenting with Hydrogen, and places like Ladakh would become very important. In the Tibetan plateau, China has made huge arrays of solar panels. From that, you convert, through methods and processes, using machinery that converts it to Hydrogen, which you have to liquefy. These things are not done in a proper way yet, but in another 15 years or even less than that, we can find out how to do it more in an efficient and cheaper way. Right now, it is expensive to do all this.
In cold regions, the intensity of sunlight can be tapped to make green energy. Water can be split to get Hydrogen, and then you can liquefy Hydrogen, make it into fuel and use it. And that can be transported through pipelines. China’s well into that route. Ladakh provides us with that opportunity. It is a cold desert. It can have this kind of array of solar panels from which we can convert Hydrogen. Countries like Australia and Chile with cold deserts can use those regions to further their green hydrogen prospects. When we liquefy Hydrogen, transport it and use it as fuel in buses or cars, we can cut down on fossil fuels. And Hydrogen has no byproduct. It is very much congruent with our emission requirements for the planet. Moreover, we are hoping that it will take off, which can save the Arctic.
Question
But you see the strategic thing scaling up, given that the Ukraine war is now on? it doesn’t look like it’s going to end at all.
Answer
It will be a low-intensity war, just as it was in the Middle East. Some things keep going on, so I don’t see it stopping in the near future.
Question
China has also been a lead player in exploiting the North Sea Route?
Answer
Yes. It is interesting what China does. They have this vessel called Snow Dragon, which they got from Ukraine incidentally. They made a second one, and now they are making a third one and are also looking at nuclear-operated vessels. With nuclear-powered ships, like submarines, it is very easy to travel long distances without refuelling. The Arctic does not have ports of call. It is very difficult if you get stuck in the Arctic. That is possible, which is why search and rescue is one of the things that the Arctic Council works on. Nuclear-powered ships can actually overcome this.
China has that kind of capacity; even Russia is building capacity for nuclear-powered ships. They are planning to use the Northern Sea Route in a big way. And then there are other things. You need Russian ships to escort you out through the Northern Sea Route. You cannot go on your own. So, you have to apply months in advance; you have to get clearance. You have to pay a fee; there has to be an ice pilot. You must fulfil regulations if you go through the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
These are Russia’s regulations because the waters are mostly Russian. You have to do all these things to go through Russian waters and hugging the coast. In China’s case, there is a certain leniency which is not there for others. There are big companies like COSCO involved. However, Maersk has said it doesn’t want to travel on the NSR because they feel that it should be more energy efficient. It has an environmental cost, so they do not want to go through the NSR. So larger companies have said they do not want to be in the NSR. Although they have said this overtly, there seems to be some undercurrent why they do not want to be there because it is all about economics, and it is a shorter route. However, then because of all other reasons, it actually becomes expensive.
Question
So, last question. Where are India’s capabilities as far as the Arctic is concerned? We have been there for a long time; we have had stations there, trained scientists and all that. So where are we today?
Answer
We have an Arctic policy, which has six pillars. The first is science. We are doing a lot of science, so there is a fair amount of understanding of that. Then comes governance. We have nothing to do with the governance of the eight states, but there is one issue – the continental shelf. There are overlapping claims in this region within the continental shelf. Actually, there is a body called CLCS under UNCLOS, which you only had. Then there is BBNJ (Marine Biodiversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction) which has come in recently. So, these determine the continental shelf.
Russia, Canada and the US have laid their claims in the sea and have given reasons why they think it should be theirs. Many have claimed the Arctic Ocean, but India believes a section there is the Global Commons and should be protected. Countries like India could intervene and talk about the good of humankind or the global commons and ideate on that. We have a lot of other advantages, such as an English-speaking seafarer sailing community, which we can train to be ice pilots or specialised crew. So, there are many ways in which we can fulfil the Arctic’s needs.
Health is another sector. We have a very good digital health sector. Our scientists and people can create an AI-driven environment that can help the Arctic communities because they are in far-flung areas. We need to put in observatories in the Arctic, which will help us with space technologies. India is very good at that, and we can work with Arctic states to further it.
Question
And do people listen?
Answer
Yes, of course, especially now that the environment has really changed, and it is a time when a lot of people are interested to see what India has to offer. So, we have shifted from being the consumer to being a source. We have also become a source of certain requirements as far as the Arctic is concerned.
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